The Dilemmas of an Economist's Free Lunch

Industrial Revolutions
University Scholars 203

Economics majors may request that it be counted as equivalent to Economics 214.

Schedule


Prerequisites: Curiosity and an Independent Mind


Throughout history mankind's problem was that we ate up the free lunches technology granted us. As a result, one century looked much like the one before, and the one after. But along the way there was a revolution. When did it take place, though, and what sort of revolution was it? If we can do that, we'd like to ask the much harder question of causation...


This course will meet M-W-F at noon (E Hour) in Huntley Hall 220 (conference room next to the lounge). I will gradually put up a web site. For now here is basic information that might save you money. An extended course description and syllabus will be posted by the start of class. Below is (i) a list of texts, (ii) a course overvew and (iii) a detailed outline. However this does not yet have a schedule, nor have outside speakers etc been worked in.

For reference, here is the web site for an OLD version of this course.

Here are the texts on order for the fall. Some are available used from on-line retailers or as eBooks.


ISBN Title Authors
87474-539-X Engines of Change Hindle, Brooke; Lubar, Steven
0691120137 The Gifts of Athena Mokyr, Joel
0553585975 Wealth of Nations Smith, Adam
0717802418 Communist Manifesto Marx, Karl; Engels, Friedrich
many editions Protestant Ethic Max Weber
??? paperback The Great Divergence Pomeranz, Kenneth
0812504828 Robinson Crusoe Defoe, Daniel

Overview

For most of human history, one century looks much like the one before it. There were changes in the nature of daily life, but little evidence of sustained improvements in health and longevity. By the middle of the 19th century, that was no longer the case; a new concept, "progress," had not only entered the intellectual realm, but was tangible across much of Europe. Karl Marx was perhaps not the first, but certainly was the most eloquent to describe it, in his paean to industrialization in the Communist Manifesto. But was "industrialization" really so central? -- the timing of the diffusion of the steam engine and other "revolutionary" inventions does not match that of changes in income and other indicators. We've much work ahead of us, to puzzle out what happened, if not why.


Content

To understand a revolution entails many steps. First, we must be careful to define the issues. Second, and not independent of the first, we must develop analytic approaches. These can be the formal models of "high" theory, or more in the way of expository or organizational principles for the story we try to tell or the data we want to examine. In addition, we can focus on proximate issues, or seek for "deep" theory and ultimate causes. Third, of course, we must work with data, and analyze it (or, in the spirit of the above, at least lay it out in an orderly narrative). Finally, we have to evaluate what we have done -- which, of course, is a function of our definitions, and theory, and our collective standards of what constitutes a compelling case or at least a good yarn.

Now economists have their tools and their mindset, and this term we will make use of those tools and expose you to the "economic" way of thinking. But the overall topic is too broad to fit into a single framework. Parts, perhaps, can be comfortably pigeonholed into the boxes economists build, but only parts. I will insist that you identify and explore issues on your own.

The economist's approach can be summed up in two words: compound growth. To these must be added six more: which grows faster, output or population? Here is my current take on things; it will change as the term evolves. But at least for the first half of the term, until you develop your own projects, it's what we'll do. See however the attached list of potential projects below; it is not a comprehensive list, merely one to set you thinking. We not only want to try to define our revolution, but we also want to ask what it's wrought -- in countries and societies (history!), in culture, and in individual lives.


Methodology

My first take:

  1. Observation: stasis versus progress
    1. our standard of living is qualitatively different, and rising.
    2. that wasn't true for most of human history (and still for some peoples today)
    3. so what changed
  2. Force and resistance
    1. technical change boosts output
      1. it also brings qualitative change, but was that important if lives remained brutish and short?
      2. sources: Brooke Hindle & Steven Lubar, Joel Mokyr, Alfred Chandler
    2. population growth eats it up: demography
      1. Thomas Malthus!
      2. plus Greg Clark overview, and chapters from the comparative historical demography project (Bengtsson, Kurosu, Lee)
  3. Deep theory
    1. economic change comes from culture: Max Weber
    2. change is intrinsic to an economic system; culture is derivative: Karl Marx
    3. others: Smith, Boserup
  4. Revolutions - evidence, examples
    1. art: Joseph Wright of Derby
    2. literature: Daniel Defoe
    3. anthropometrics: Richard Steckel
    4. music: John Henry
    5. expenditures, output, structure: economic data
      1. formal model of growth
      2. data / framework: Deidre McCloskey, Jan de Vries, Michael Smitka
  5. Analysis
    1. Can we define the revolution?
      1. if so, explain we have to be able to explain it to others (a paper...)
      2. measure of success: if the reader is willing to look at your next paper!
    2. Data and models
      1. formal models can be matched with data
      2. measure of success: are the results "compelling"?
  6. Your projects
    1. so what?
      1. case studies of how lives changed
        1. family structure
        2. lifestyle (goods, services, abode)
    2. what changed? -- case studies
      1. a country or region (Pomeranz as a model?)
      2. technology: an industry or application (class example: smelting iron)
      3. a good or market (tea?)
      4. literature, music, art
      5. business history, biography
    3. Potential projects:
      1. trace the development of the concept of "progress"
        1. in philosophy
        2. in history
        3. in the natural sciences